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These documents were scanned, collated and catalogued by Ruth Murray, Annabel Harris, Isha Pareek, Eleanor Williams, Antoine Yenk, Harriet Carter, Oliver Nicholls, Kieran Wetherwick, and Cerys Griffiths.
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CONFIDENTIAL FM DUBLIN TO DESKBY 250900Z FCO TELNO 083 OF 241815Z FEBRUARY 92 INFO DESKBY 250900Z NIO(L), NIO(B), UKREP BRUSSELS
MIPT: ANGLO0IRISH SUMMIT, 26 FEBRUARY: SCENE-SETTER
SUMMARY
DETAIL
TWO WEEKS HAVE ELAPSED SINCE ALBERT REYNOLDS WAS APPOINTED TAOISEACH ON 11 FEBRUARY. HIS FIRST ACT WAS TO APPOINT A MINISTERIAL TEAM COMPRISING HIS OWN SUPPORTERS AND HAUGHEY'S OPPONENTS, AND TO DEMOTE OTHER SENIOR FIGURES OR SEND THEM TO THE BACK BENCHES. THE BLOOD HAS STILL NOT DRIED: LAST WEEK REYNOLDS DROPPED AN ATTEMPT TO REPLACE THE PARLIAMENTARY PARTY CHAIRMAN (TUNNEY) WITH HIS OWN NOMINEE WHEN IT BECAME CLEAR THAT IT WOULD NOT SUCCEED WITHOUT A VOTE. IT HAD BEEN EXPECTED THAT, FOLLOWING THE PARTY SQUABBLES OF HAUGHEY'S FINAL MONTHS, HIS SUCCESSOR WOULD MOVE QUICKLY TO UNITE THE PARTY. THE OPPOSITE HAS HAPPENED. SHOULD REYNOLDS' GOVERNMENT GET INTO DIFFICULTIES OVER POLICY ISSUES, HE COULD FIND HIMSELF UNDER ATTACK FROM WITHIN FIANNA FAIL.
AN OPINION POLL ON 23 FEBRUARY SUGGESTED THAT THE NEW GOVERNMENT'S STANDING HAD RISEN STRONGLY OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THIS HONEYMOON EFFECT WILL NATURALLY HAVE HEARTENED THE TAOISEACH, THOUGH IN EFFECT FIANNA FAIL HAVE ONLY RECOVERED THE GROUND LOST IN 1991 UNDER HAUGHEY. REYNOLDS' PERSONAL POPULARITY HAS REPORTEDLY ALSO INCREASED. BUT THE PUBLIC HAVE LITTLE YET TO GO ON. WHILE ON HIS APPOINTMENT THE TAOISEACH IDENTIFIED JOBS AS THE MAIN PROBLEM TO TACKLE (UNEMPLOYMENT IS RUNNING AT OVER 20 PER CENT) AND HAS SIGNALLED THAT HE MIGHT AGREE TO FORM AN ALL-PARTY JOBS FORUM TO DISCUSS UNEMPLOYMENT, HIS GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN ALMOST ENTIRELY PREOCCUPIED WITH THE ABORTION CRISIS, WHICH HIT THEM LIKE A HURRICANE OUT OF A CLEAR SKY. THE FACTS HAVE BEEN WIDELY REPORTED. REYNOLDS HAS CLEVERLY SOUGHT TO MAKE THE MATTER A NON-PARTY ISSUE BY INVITING THE OTHER PARTY LEADERS TO TALKS, BY AVOIDING COMMENT AND PURSUING THE STATE CASE WHILE AT THE SAME TIME PROVIDING FINANCIAL AID FOR THE FAMILY INVOLVED TO APPEAL. THE CASE IS NOW BEFORE THE SUPREME COURT, AND COULD GO TO THE EUROPEAN COURT (FOR EXAMPLE, TO DECIDE WHETHER THE RIGHT TO TRAVEL WITHIN THE EC TO AVAIL OF SERVICES SHOULD BE APPLIED.)
WHATEVER THE COURTS DECIDE, THE PROBLEM WILL NOT GO AWAY. ABORTION RAISES ENORMOUS AND BITTER PASSIONS HERE. IT IS HARD TO OVERSTATE THE POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE PRESENT CRISIS. AS THE PRESIDENT HAS PUBLICLY ACKNOWLEDGED,THE IRISH ARE NOT GOOD AT FACING UP TO DIFFICULT MORAL CHOICES. ACCORDING TO A WEEKEND POLL, OVER 30 PER CENT OF THE POPULATION AGREE WITH THE ORDER, ENDORSED BY THE HIGH COURT, RESTRAINING THE RAPE VICTIM IN THE PRESENT CASE FROM SEEKING AN ABORTION ABROAD. OF THE NEARLY 70 PER CENT WHO DISAGREE, FEW WOULD COUNTENANCE ANY ABORTIONS TAKING PLACE LEGALLY IN THE REPUBLIC: THE GREAT MAJORITY FAVOUR AN ABORTION-FREE IRELAND WHICH CONNIVES AT ABORTIONS ON IRISH WOMEN ABROAD. SHOULD THE COURTS ENDORSE THE HIGH COURT'S RULING, THERE WILL BE PRESSURE FOR THE CONSTITUTION TO BE AMENDED SO AS TO ALLOW THIS.
A PARTICULAR COMPLICATION RELATES TO THE MAASTRICHT TREATY. THE IRISH PROTOCOL TO THE TREATY PURPORTS TO EXEMPT THE ANTI-ABORTION PROVISIONS OF THE IRISH CONSTITUTION FROM THE EFFECT OF THE TREATY AND EC LAW, IN IRELAND. THE SUPREME COURT'S RULING MAY IN EFFECT SHOW THAT THIS TERRITORIAL RESTRICTION IS UNCONSTITUTIONAL, OR IT MAY ENDORSE IT. IN EITHER CASE, THERE WOULD BE PRESSURE TO AMEND THE TEXT OF THE PROTOCOL, OR THE CONSTITUTION, OR PERHAPS BOTH. AND DEPENDING ON CIRCUMSTANCES, THE RESULT OF THE REFERENDUM ON MAASTRICHT DUE LATER THIS YEAR COULD BE PUT MORE IN DOUBT.
THESE COMPLICATIONS WILL INEVITABLY LIMIT THE TAOISEACH'S FREEDOMOF MANOEUVRE OVER NORTHERN IRELAND, AND ON EC MATTERS. CONSERVATIVES OVER ABORTION TEND TO BE CONSERVATIVES OVER NORTHERN IRELAND, NEUTRALITY AND FOREIGN ENTANGLEMENTS TOO. FIANNA FAIL IS TRADITIONALLY CONSERVATIVE, STATEMENTSBY FIANNA FAIL BACK-BENCHERS HAVE BEEN MARKEDLY MORE CAUTIOUS THAN THOSE BY OPPOSITION DEPUTIES, AND REYNOLDS' CABINET, MOST OF THEM FROM RURAL CONSTITUENCIES, IS PROBABLY MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN HIS PREDECESSOR'S. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE TRADE-OFFS: REYNOLDS MAY FIND HIS FLEXIBILITY OVER NORTHERN IRELAND OR EC MATTERS LIMITED BY HIS NEED TO TAKE ISSUE WITH THE ANTI-ABORTION LOBBY. CONVERSELY, HE MAY DECIDE TO TAKE A TOUGH LINE AGAINST ABORTION IN ORDER TO LEAVE HIS HANDS FREER ELSEWHERE.
WHILE THE ABORTION ISSUE WILL BE MUCH ON THE TAOISEACH'S MIND, HIS MAIN PURPOSES IN MEETING THE PRIME MINISTER WILL BE TO RESUME THEIR FRIENDSHIP, SOUND OUT HIS VIEWS ON NORTHERN IRELAND AND STRESS THE NEED FOR SOLUTIONS. WE MAY FIND THAT HIS OWN RELATIVE INEXPERIENCE IN NORTHERN IRELAND AFFAIRS LEAVES HIM SUSCEPTIBLE TO TRADITIONAL FIANNA FAIL AND SDLP ATTITUDES, ESPECIALLY ON SUCH THINGS AS PARTITION (ARTICLES 2 AND 3) AND SECURITY/CONFIDENCE ISSUES. BUT HE WILL BE AWARE OF THE NEED TO PROVE HIMSELF TO BE HIS OWN MAN.
BLATHERWICK
YYYY
DISTRIBUTION 15
ADVANCE 15
.NORTHERN IRELAND PS PS/PUS HD/RID HD/ECD (I) HD/INFO D HD/NEWS D PS/SEC OF THE CABINET, CAB OFF MR CHILCOTT NIO (L) PS/S OF S NIO (L) PS/LORD BELSTEAD NIO (L) MR THOMAS NIO (L) MR BELL NIO (L) MR COOKE SIL NIO (L) RESIDENT CLERK
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27 1988 - 2023
38 1993 - 1993
55 101 - 1991
64 1993 - 2020
26 1993 - 1993
57 1993 - 1993
59 1993 - 1993
51 1993 - 1993
18 1993 - 1993
24 1993 - 1994
41 1993 - 1994
32 1993 - 1994
72 101 - 1994
8 101 - 1990
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1 1994
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37 101 - 1993
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77 1993 - 1993
58 101 - 2018
49 1993 - 1997
61 101 - 1992
38 101 - 1991
48 1992 - 1993
134 101 - ?-??
59 101 - 2023
84 101 - 1993
64 101 - 1991
44
11
31 1996 - 1996
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32 1996 - 1996
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22 1996 - 1996
1992-02-24
Sets out the context and background to the appointment of Albert Reynolds as Taoiseach and his cabinet in preparation for the Anglo-Irish Summit on 26 February at Downing Street. David Blatherwick expresses concern that the abortion crisis that was taking place in Ireland could weaken Reynolds's room for manoeuvre on Northern Ireland issues. Highlighted.
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Unless otherwise specified, this material falls under Crown Copyright and contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
The National Archives of the UK (TNA), digitzed by the Quill Project at https://quillproject.net/resource_collections/351/.