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Enclosure: Intelligence Assessment of Provisional IRA Response to Joint Declaration Initiative

Writing Peace: The National Archives of the UK (TNA)

1993-10-18

British intelligence assesssment of the mindset of the Provisional leadership. Takes into account contextual events including previous ceasefires, dialogue between Hume and Adams, the softening of the previous PIRA demand for British withdrawal in 1991-2, and a general softening in the public pronouncements of Gerry Adams and Martin McGuiness particularly regarding the Unionists. Conclusion is that Sinn Fein/PIRA feel war weary and politically marginalised. Further conclusion is that they are serious about ending violence. The assessment is also positive about the cessation of responsive Loyalist violence if the Provisional leadership is successful in carrying most brigades with them.

downing street declaration paramilitary activity (republican) paramilitary activity (loyalist) inclusion/exclusion of parties security

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CJ 4/10483
77 1993 - 1993
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