This document sets out the possible outcomes and next steps of talks depending on the reaction to the current draft JD12.
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JOINT DECLARATION INITIATIVE - SUGGESTED SEQUENCE OF EVENTS
Stage 1 - British Government agrees/does not agree Joint Declaration text privately. British Government does/does not insist on explicit constitutional guarantee in text.
Stage 2 - Irish Government decide whether to put the agreed text to the Provisionals (not declaring agreement with HMA) or to kill the initiative and aim for a SOFT LANDING.
Stage 3 - Provisionals consider text and either agree and undertake to stop the violence or reject.
Stage 4(a) - If Provisionals reject all sides aim for SOFT LANDING.
Stage 4(b) - If Provisionals accept Irish Government makes formal approach to British Government with text of Declaration and letter containing Taoiseach's understanding.
[Stage 5 - Provisionals cease firing]
Stage 6 (a) - Intensive engagement with Irish Government on details and timetable for the scheme, or final chance to bale out and aim for SOFT LANDING.
Stage 6(b) - Full briefing for Leader of the Opposition and Mr Molyneaux on Privy Council terms, for GOC and RUC Chief Constable; report to Cabinet etc.
Stage 7 - Irish/British Summit meeting.
Stage 8(a) - Joint Declaration made by Taoiseach and Prime Minister.
Stage 8(b) - Statements in House and Dail.
Stage 9 - Implementation of scheme, ie establishment of Convention.
Stage 10 - Consequential steps for HMG. De-escalation of security force activity if justified by events on the ground, decision about dialogue with Sinn Fein after cessation of violence sufficiently demonstrated; confidence building for all sections of the community in Northern Ireland.