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Writing Peace: The National Archives of the UK (TNA)

Enclosure: Suggested Sequence of Events for the Joint Declaration Initiative

Tuesday, 12 October 1993

i23554

This document sets out the possible outcomes and next steps of talks depending on the reaction to the current draft JD12.

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JOINT DECLARATION INITIATIVE - SUGGESTED SEQUENCE OF EVENTS

Stage 1 - British Government agrees/does not agree Joint Declaration text privately. British Government does/does not insist on explicit constitutional guarantee in text.

Stage 2 - Irish Government decide whether to put the agreed text to the Provisionals (not declaring agreement with HMA) or to kill the initiative and aim for a SOFT LANDING.

Stage 3 - Provisionals consider text and either agree and undertake to stop the violence or reject.

Stage 4(a) - If Provisionals reject all sides aim for SOFT LANDING.

Stage 4(b) - If Provisionals accept Irish Government makes formal approach to British Government with text of Declaration and letter containing Taoiseach's understanding.

[Stage 5 - Provisionals cease firing]

Stage 6 (a) - Intensive engagement with Irish Government on details and timetable for the scheme, or final chance to bale out and aim for SOFT LANDING.

Stage 6(b) - Full briefing for Leader of the Opposition and Mr Molyneaux on Privy Council terms, for GOC and RUC Chief Constable; report to Cabinet etc.

Stage 7 - Irish/British Summit meeting.

Stage 8(a) - Joint Declaration made by Taoiseach and Prime Minister.

Stage 8(b) - Statements in House and Dail.

Stage 9 - Implementation of scheme, ie establishment of Convention.

Stage 10 - Consequential steps for HMG. De-escalation of security force activity if justified by events on the ground, decision about dialogue with Sinn Fein after cessation of violence sufficiently demonstrated; confidence building for all sections of the community in Northern Ireland.